So it’s that time of year again—the season when we grab HBW’s five‑year trend report and take a good, hard look at how new residential construction is shaping up across the metro Atlanta area. Think of it as our annual “state of the market” moment, except instead of speeches and spotlights, we are armed with permit data, percentages, and a healthy respect for how quickly this industry can turn on a dime.

For this update (and all quarterly updates) we are using HBW’s Building Activity Trend Report for new residential construction, covering all permits recorded through the third quarter of 2026. Earlier this year, at the halfway mark, we noted an 11% year‑to‑date decrease compared to the same period in 2025. Now, three months later, the story hasn’t changed much—though it has softened slightly. Through Q3 2026, the metro area is showing a 10% year‑to‑date decrease in new residential construction activity compared to 2025, with 14,182 new permits on record.

Is it a decline? Yes. Is it as sharp as last year’s decline? Not quite. In 2025, the metro area saw a 15% annual decrease compared to 2024. So, while 2026 is still trending downward, the slope isn’t quite as steep. And with one quarter left in the year, there’s still room for the market to surprise us (pleasantly or otherwise). These quarterly check‑ins aren’t meant to be written in stone; they are more like snapshots of a moving target, giving us a sense of direction and momentum.

Top Five Counties for New Construction Activity

Out of the 24 counties included in the metro Atlanta report, a handful stood out for their high concentration of new residential permits. Here’s how the top five stacked up through Q3 2026:

• Gwinnett County – 2,308 permits Gwinnett remains the metro area’s heavyweight, even with a 3% year‑to‑date decrease compared to 2025. High volume, slight dip—still a powerhouse.
• Hall County – 1,157 permits Hall is one of the few counties bucking the metro‑wide trend, posting a 4% year‑to‑date increase. Growth here has been steady, and 2026 is no exception.
• Fulton County – 1,089 permits Fulton displayed a 9% year‑to‑date decrease, reflecting a slowdown but still maintaining one of the highest permit totals in the region.
• Cherokee County – 991 permits Cherokee’s 20% year‑to‑date decrease is one of the more pronounced declines among the high‑volume counties. Activity remains strong, but the drop is noteworthy.
• Cobb County – 943 permits Cobb is another standout on the growth side, posting a 15% year‑to‑date increase. It’s one of the few major counties running contrary to the metro’s overall downward trend.

The top counties illustrate an important dynamic: high activity doesn’t always mean growth. Some of the busiest regions are still trailing last year’s numbers, while others are quietly gaining momentum.

Counties Showing Noteworthy Growth

Beyond the top five, several counties deserve attention for their upward movement—especially those that aren’t necessarily the largest but are showing meaningful shifts in activity.

Barrow County – 903 permits (+12%) – Barrow has been on a multi‑year upswing, with spikes as high as 24% in 2023 and 20% in 2025. Its current 12% year‑to‑date increase continues that trajectory. At this point, Barrow’s performance suggests that growth is less of a phase and more of a long‑term pattern for the county.

Carroll County – 644 permits (+50%) – Carroll is having an exceptional year with a 50% year‑to‑date increase—the largest jump among Q3’s noteworthy counties for growth. After posting annual increases of 23% in 2024 and 5% in 2025, this year’s surge suggests something significant is happening. Whether it’s shifting demand, new development corridors, or broader migration patterns, Carroll County is clearly becoming a place to watch.

Jackson County – 656 permits (+13%) – Jackson is showing signs of recovery after a 24% year‑over‑year dip in 2025. With a 13% year‑to‑date increase through Q3 2026, the county appears to be climbing out of last year’s slump. Considering Jackson posted strong annual increases in both 2023 (+19%) and 2024 (+14%), this rebound may indicate that 2025 was more of a temporary pause than a long‑term transformation.

As always, it is important to keep in mind that this report is a quarterly glance—not a final verdict. We still have one quarter left in 2026, and the residential construction market has a way of surprising us when we least expect it. What we can say, though, is that the metro Atlanta area continues to show a mix of resilience, recalibration, and regional variability. Some counties are cooling off after years of high activity. Others are heating up in ways that could reshape development patterns moving forward. And while the overall metro area is trending slightly downward, the declines are less dramatic than last year’s, which may be a sign that the market is stabilizing, or at least finding its footing.

Either way, we will be back at the end of the year with a full annual review. Until then, consider this your Q3 pulse check: informative, directional, and—like all good construction projects—still in progress.

Information utilized for the above listed figures for Metro Atlanta residential construction was directly derived from HBW construction data reports. To gain access to the HBW database and receive custom and detailed reports on the latest residential and commercial building activity in Florida, Georgia, Texas, Alabama, and Oklahoma, please contact HBW for details.