As we look back on the first three quarters of 2025, metro Atlanta’s new residential permitting landscape offers both cautionary signals and bright spots. Based on the latest HBW Building Activity Trend Report, total permit counts in the 24-county metro region through Q3 stand at 15,518 new residential permits, reflecting a –10 % year-to-date decline compared to the same period in 2024.
The –10 % YTD slip in permits underscores a moderation in builder activity, perhaps tied to macro-headwinds such as elevated financing costs, material inflation, labor constraints, and cautious buyer demand. As permit issuance is frequently viewed as a leading indicator of groundbreakings and starts, this slide may reflect a dampened pipeline for late-2025 and early 2026.
It is useful to view 2025 in the context of recent years:
- 2022: –18 % year-over-year decline
- 2023: –7 % year-over-year decline
- 2024: +6 % year-over-year rebound
The modest rebound in 2024 suggested stabilization after the sharper drop in 2022. However, the current downtrend in 2025 indicates that momentum remains fragile, and that builder sentiment is again under pressure.
Leading Counties
Despite the overall decline, certain counties continue to dominate in volume:
| County | Permits (YTD Q3 2025) | Notes / Rank |
| Gwinnett | 2,376 | Top volumetric contributor |
| Cherokee | 1,235 | Among top three |
| Fulton | 1,200 | Strong urban core share |
| Hall | 1,117 | Among leading counties |
| Forsyth | 1,038 | Solid performance on par with metro YTD change |
The above listed counties account for a large share of overall metro permit activity. Their sustained volume underscores the ongoing importance of the suburban growth corridor around I-85, I-75, and the exurban fringes.
Areas of Relative Growth
Even against a backdrop of decline, some counties display positive momentum—potentially redrawing attention from builders seeking more favorable markets.
- Hall County: 1,117 permits through Q3, up +9 % over the same period last year.
- Barrow County: 806 permits, demonstrating a +27 % year-over-year increase.
- Carroll County: 430 permits, up +15 % versus Q3 2024 (notably, last year Carroll had exhibited a +23 % gain).
The counties listed above may merit closer tracking as possible growth pockets, especially if builders are shifting capacity outward.
The –10% year-to-date drop through Q3 suggests that builders are showing some restraint, likely in response to tighter margins, higher interest rates, and more cautious absorption forecasts. One way to look at it is that 2025 may simply be a “rebalancing” year following last year’s rebound—a period where activity cools slightly rather than contracts sharply, as builders and buyers alike adjust to ongoing cost pressures. Another possible narrative is that we’re seeing a quiet shift in strategy, with builders redirecting focus from saturated or high-cost core counties toward more affordable and less regulated exurban areas such as Barrow, Carroll, and Hall.
For construction industry professionals, the current permitting trends point to the importance of staying flexible and forward-thinking. Firms should remain agile in reallocating crews, materials, and bidding resources, especially as certain counties deviate positively from metro-wide norms and present fresh opportunities for targeted prospecting. Rather than concentrating exclusively on high-volume markets such as Gwinnett, Fulton, and Cherokee, it may be worthwhile to explore rising counties like Hall, Barrow, and Carroll, where growth pockets seem to be emerging. Due to the fact that permitting activity typically lags behind actual construction starts by several months, builders would be wise to stress-test their 2026 forecasts to prepare for potential delays or shifts in workload. Additionally, maintaining close communication with local planning and permitting departments can be advantageous, as some counties may respond to slower permitting activity by offering new incentives or streamlining approval processes.
Overall, metro Atlanta’s new residential permit activity has cooled (thru Q3 2025), relative to 2024 levels. Yet the picture is not uniformly negative: pockets of growth in Hall, Barrow, and Carroll Counties suggest selective opportunities. As permit issuance is an early barometer of forthcoming construction starts, contractors, developers, and suppliers should calibrate their strategies carefully and maintain flexibility across markets and project types.
Information utilized for the above listed figures for Metro Atlanta residential construction was directly derived from HBW construction data reports. To gain access to the HBW database and receive custom and detailed reports on the latest residential and commercial building activity in Florida, Georgia, Texas, Alabama, and Oklahoma, please contact HBW for details.