Florida’s residential construction market has always had a way of changing things up—booms, dips, surges, stalls, and the occasional surprise spotlight on a region that no one expected to lead the pack. Through the second quarter of 2026, the latest HBW Building Activity Trend Report gives us a fresh snapshot of where the state stands halfway through the year. And while the numbers show a continued cooling in new home construction, they also reveal pockets of resilience, regional nuance, and a few counties that seem determined to defy the statewide trend.

Here’s a breakdown of the latest activity:

Statewide Overview

Through Q2 2026, HBW has added 51,444 new residential construction permits to the HBW database for the Sunshine State. This represents a 7% year‑to‑date decline compared to the same period in 2025. It is worth remembering that 2025 already reflected a 4% year‑over‑year decline. In other words, the market was already easing, and the 2026 numbers may simply be an extension of that trend rather than a sign of structural distress. Mid‑year figures can be notoriously misleading—Q2 is often too early to declare victory or defeat—so the prudent interpretation is that Florida’s residential construction market is cooling a bit, not collapsing.

Regional Performance

Top‑Volume Regions:

Two regions came out on top so far this year:

• West Florida – 12,489 permits, 14% year‑to‑date decrease vs. 2025. Despite the decline, West Florida remains the state’s construction powerhouse.
• Southwest Florida – 10,988 permits, 7% year‑to‑date decrease. The region’s decline mirrors the statewide trend almost perfectly.

Other Regions:

• Northeast Florida – 8,766 permits, 4% decrease. A softer decline than the statewide average, suggesting relative stability.
• Northwest Florida – 7,093 permits, 11% increase. One of the only regions showing meaningful growth, Northwest Florida is the standout performer of 2026 so far.
• Central Florida – 7,039 permits, 17% decrease. A sharper decline than most regions, pulling down the statewide average so far this year.
• Southeast Florida – 5,069 permits, 1% increase. Modest growth, but growth nonetheless—especially notable given the region’s lower overall volume.

County‑Level Insights:

County‑level data often reveals the real story behind regional trends. Here are the counties worth watching:

Top Five Highest‑Volume Counties

• Lee County (SW FL) – 3,333 permits, 30% decrease. Despite the steep decline, Lee County still leads the state in total permit volume.
• Manatee County (SW FL) – 3,179 permits, 39% increase. One of the most impressive growth stories of 2026. Manatee is bucking the statewide trend so far this year.
• Polk County (West FL) – 3,224 permits, 18% decrease. High volume, but a notable drop.
• Pasco County (West FL) – 3,130 permits, 23% decrease. Another high‑volume county experiencing a significant slowdown.
• Marion County (NE FL) – 2,921 permits, Flat year‑to‑date. Stability here is meaningful. After a 23% decline in 2025, holding steady may signal a leveling‑off.
• Sumter County (West FL) – 2,092 permits, 9% decrease. A moderate decline, but still a high‑volume contributor.

Counties Exhibiting Growth (and Worth Watching)

• Lake County (Central FL) – 1,637 permits, 7% increase. Lake County has been on an upward trajectory since 2024, and through Q2 2026 the trend continues.
• Palm Beach County (SE FL) – 1,264 permits, 10% increase. A meaningful bump that may be expected with Southeast Florida’s slight regional growth.
• Bay County (NW FL) – 1,210 permits, 5% increase. Albeit modest, the activity in Bay County is positive and worth noting.
• Walton County (NW FL) – 855 permits, 41% increase. A dramatic percentage increase—but with lower volume, the impact is more symbolic than seismic. Still, growth is growth, especially following a year of decline.

Higher‑Value Residential Construction ($500K+)

Higher‑value residential construction continues to chart its own course in 2026, demonstrating a resilience that stands in contrast to the broader market’s cooling trend. West Florida leads the state with 1,762 higher‑value permits through Q2, positioning the region to potentially match its 2025 total of 3,532 and reaffirming its role as Florida’s premium‑construction stronghold. Southwest Florida follows with 1,381 permits, a pace that places it slightly ahead of last year’s trajectory of 2,496 and signals steady demand for upscale housing. Close behind, Southeast Florida has logged 1,344 higher‑value permits, already outpacing its 2025 mid‑year momentum toward a full‑year total of 2,159. Taken together, these figures suggest that higher‑value residential construction remains notably robust, indicating that demand for premium homes is holding firm even as overall statewide permit volume shows signs of softening.

Although mid‑year permit activity is not a forecast for the remainder of 2026, it offers meaningful clues about the direction the market may be heading. Statewide, the 7% year‑to‑date decline—following a 4% drop in 2025—signals a continued cooling rather than a dramatic correction, suggesting the market is easing rather than unraveling. Northwest Florida stands out as the region to watch, with consistent, broad‑based growth across multiple counties, while Southwest and West Florida continue to anchor statewide construction activity despite their own declines. Higher‑value residential construction is outperforming the broader market, hinting at sustained demand from relocators, retirees, and higher‑income buyers who remain active even as overall volume softens. At the county level, variance is significant: Manatee, Lake, Palm Beach, Bay, and Walton counties all show meaningful growth, each driven by its own local dynamics, underscoring the importance of granular, county‑specific analysis when evaluating Florida’s evolving residential construction market.

In short, residential construction in Florida through Q2 2026 is best described as cooling, but still active; declining, but not distressed; shifting, but not stalling. The second half of the year will determine whether the current trend continues or stabilizes, but for now, the data provides valuable insight for builders, developers, and industry professionals navigating a market that remains dynamic, regionally diverse, and full of opportunity—if you know where to look.

To gain more information on the builders, homeowners and permits for the construction activity above, check out HBW for your copy of the latest construction data reports. To gain access to the HBW database and receive custom and detailed reports on the latest residential and commercial building activity in Florida, Georgia, Texas, Alabama, and Oklahoma, please contact HBW for details.